Charting our forest future: national supply curves for forest-based CO₂ mitigation

Abstract Forests currently store more carbon in their vegetation and soil than all of the carbon in earth’s atmosphere. But how much CO₂ can be removed and sequestered by forests in the future, and at what cost? This study examines the potential for forests to sequester CO₂ and the associated costs, utilizing a dynamic economic model, FAO data, and new remote sensing-based estimates of forest regeneration. It finds that up to 12 GtCO₂ could be sequestered by 2050 through forest mitigation activities, with 44% from afforestation/reforestation, 30% from avoided deforestation emissions, and 26% from changes in forest management. The majority of mitigation (64%) is expected to come from tropical regions, although this share decreases with higher monetary incentives. A constrained scenario, which limits land conversion to historical rates, reduces global sequestration potential by 41% in 2050, particularly impacting temperate forests. These findings provide valuable insights for assessing the cost of national forest sequestration targets and guiding policymakers in the development of evidence-informed forest-based mitigation actions.