Empirical analysis of project–purchaser dynamics in Japan’s blue carbon dioxide removal credit scheme

Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and associated credit mechanisms are gaining prominence in carbon neutrality strategies, yet transaction-level evidence linking project and purchaser characteristics with market outcomes remains limited. Here, we analyzed 61 blue carbon projects and 471 certified transactions under Japan’s J-Blue Credit scheme to examine how the characteristics of projects and purchasers and their alignment shape transaction outcomes. On average, projects involved 3.2 ± 1.4 co-creators, and transactions were small in volume (2.3 ± 4.2 tCO₂) but high in unit value (~400 USD/tCO₂). Approximately 40% of transactions occurred between parties located within the same municipality. Manufacturing companies preferred local projects, whereas service companies preferred innovation-focused projects. Project appeal content, such as co-benefits, significantly influenced purchaser numbers and unit prices, both positively and negatively. These findings suggest that multi-stakeholder collaboration, project appeal strategies including co-benefits, and sector-specific demand critically shape transaction outcomes and market structure, offering insights for designing effective credit schemes and for scaling CDR markets and advancing nature-based solutions globally.