Narratives, trade-offs and scenarios to explore the livestock transition in Belgium

Abstract The need for a livestock transition is widely acknowledged, entailing both production- and consumption-side adaptations. Yet the direction of this transition remains uncertain as a diversity of narratives and visions coexist. In this paper, we test the outcomes of dominant narratives and recurring elements of debates surrounding the livestock transition. We adopt a quantitative foresight scenario approach and apply it to the case of the Belgian livestock sector, testing four possible scenarios towards 2050 (Business as usual; Land sparing; Land sharing; Radical). Paying particular attention to the diversity of livestock farming systems and the inclusion of a multidimensional set of sustainability indicators, the results reveal the trade-offs that dominating visions entail. As no perfect scenario stands out, the exercise opens a space of options rather than singling out a unique vision. Beyond providing quantitative scenario results, we also take the opportunity to reflect on methodological choices and the usefulness of foresight approaches to advance sustainability transitions.