Anthropogenic transition in flood regimes: insights from a millennium of the Yangtze River records

npj natural hazards. 2026 Open access

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Authors: Yuanbo Liu, Yuanbo Liu, Ge Sun, Jianguo Wu, Yongwei Liu, Yongwei Liu, Han Zhou, Steven G. McNulty, Chenxi Liu
DOI: 10.1038/s44304-026-00169-9
Cited by: 3
References: 42

Abstract

Global floods are intensifying, yet climate change alone cannot resolve the persistent precipitation-flood paradox. Our millennial-scale analysis of the Yangtze River reveals that human activities, primarily deforestation and polder expansion, now outweigh climatic drivers in shaping flood regimes. This profound transition from natural to human-driven dominance necessitates a paradigm shift in risk prediction, prioritizing land-use dynamics to accurately capture extreme events that defy conventional hydrological expectations.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Tree-ring climate responses Flood Risk Assessment and Management Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Publication details

Journal / source
npj natural hazards.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Volume
3
Issue
1
Publication date
11 February 2026
Language
EN