Aligning vehicle electrification with power sector transitions: life cycle insights across diverse grids

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are central to transport decarbonization, but their climate performance depends on the grid’s carbon intensity, which varies regionally and evolves over time. This study applies a temporal Life Cycle Assessment framework to quantify the greenhouse gas emissions of BEVs relative to hybrid and combustion vehicles across five regions through 2035. Results show large regional variation: BEV emissions range from ~198 gCO₂e/km in the EU to ~351 gCO₂e/km in India. Breakeven distances range from 32,000 to 124,000 km, with high utilization accelerating payback. We highlight three contributions: (i) quantifying conditional BEV performance under regional decarbonization pathways, (ii) incorporating carbon-intensive regions like the Middle East and North Africa, and (iii) linking findings to policy triggers including grid-indexed incentives, utilization targeting, and technology-neutral procurement. These insights support context-sensitive deployment and challenge the assumption that e-mobility is uniformly green, particularly when vehicle use, power-sector transitions, and regional readiness are misaligned.