Socioeconomic and land-use factors shape sustainable management in the Catalan Pyrenees

Abstract Mountain social-ecological systems are facing profound land-use, climatic, and socioeconomic changes, and sustainable management requires understanding how different system elements interact and align with local stakeholders’ preferences. Here, we used socioeconomic and environmental data to develop a multi-stage quantitative framework to identify processes involved in trade-offs and convergences between scenarios satisfying different stakeholders in the Catalan Pyrenees. We explored system trajectories leading to potential future scenarios with outcomes favourable to various stakeholders using a dynamical network model. Further, a classification tree allowed us to identify key drivers of desired outcomes. Our results show that socioeconomic and land-use factors are crucial for the determination of system trajectories that meet the needs of different stakeholders. Strategies such as limiting forest expansion and balancing tourism and agriculture can align with stakeholder priorities. Our approach can inform management strategies that meet diverse development goals while accounting for the complexity of the social-ecological system dynamics.