Sustainable trio for food, energy, and water security in Eurasia

The Belt and Road Initiative promotes international cooperation and economic growth across Eurasia but poses challenges to sustainable development, especially in food, energy, and water security. Here, we use a national-scale Bayesian network model and analyze food-energy-water nexus interactions across 39 Eurasian countries. Our findings identify that the food subsystem, particularly food consumption, is the most sensitive component within resource subsystems: food consumption has the strongest interaction in 69% of countries, and the food subsystem is the dominant resource subsystem in 46% of countries. Further, shifting crop types and optimizing planting structures are more effective strategies to manage the food-energy-water tradeoff than modifying energy systems. Socioeconomic factors have a greater impact on resource security than natural factors. However, uneven benefits may exacerbate regional inequality. International trade acts both as a source of vulnerability and a means to compensate for resource deficits. Our findings offer a comprehensive perspective and support strategic planning for integrated resource governance in Eurasia. In Eurasia, food systems, especially consumption, are the most sensitive part of the food-energy water nexus, and shifting crop types and planting is more effective than changing energy systems for improving resource security, according to an analysis of socioeconomic data.