Long-term variability of air quality and greenhouse gas emissions from rice crop burning in Punjab during 2012–2020

≈ 0.60-0.81) confirm the robustness of the inventory and demonstrate a direct linkage between residue burning intensity and atmospheric loading. We tried to couple the long-term agricultural production trends with multi-pollutant emission quantification, satellite validation, and grid-wise spatial analysis and explored the scenario-based future projections based on the percentage of residue burnt. Scenario-based forecasts for 2040 indicated that continuation of high residue-burning fractions could lead to substantial increases in pollutant concentrations, particularly in central and south-western districts such as Ferozpur, Hoshiarpur, and Rupnagar. The results establish crop residue burning as a persistent, spatially concentrated emission source, emphasizing the need for location-specific residue management strategies rather than state-specific steps to achieve simultaneous air-quality improvement.