Towards an assessment of the impact of the Green Morocco Plan on terrestrial ecosystems: The case of Bouarfa region

Since independence, Morocco has implemented reforms and strategies to modernise agricultural sector. Foremost among these initiatives, the Green Morocco Plan (GMP, 2008-2020) was key, transforming agriculture by increasing productivity through a dual approach, combining modern agribusiness with supporting small-scale agriculture. Despite its benefits on the economy and on farmers' incomes, GMP has negative effects on the environment and natural resources. To further measure the impact of GMP on natural ecosystems of an arid region (Bouarfa), this study first aims at mapping existing habitats of the region, combining phytosociological surveys with high-resolution satellite imagery analysis. Spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, NDESI, ASTER_SI), and a topographical analysis based on the DEM were used to characterise the specific characteristics of each habitat. Image classification was developed using supervised (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine) and unsupervised (K-means) classification methods, followed by field validation, using a confusion matrix and calculation of the kappa coefficient. The results of this study present a habitat map with 82% accuracy, validated through field observations, providing a strong basis for analysing natural habitat degradation in the Bouarfa region.