Analysis of the Coupling and Coordination of Ecological “Value-Risk” in Pingtan Island under Multiple Scenario Simulations

Pingtan Island is an island ecosystem with unique geographical location and rich ecological resources. Simulation research on its health condition can provide theory foundation for developing regional development strategy. In this study, Pingtan Island was selected as a research area and a multi-scenario soil use simulation was carried out using the PLUS model. A coupling coordination model “ESV-ERI” was developed to quantitatively evaluate the temporal changes of ESV and ERI in different development scenarios to assess the overall health of the island ecosystem. The results showed that: (1) Under the CP scenarios and EP scenarios, the total amount of ESV was 12.863billion yuan and 12.804 billion yuan, respectively, which showed that contributed to the enhancement of ecosystem services; (2) The EP scenario Significantly inhibited the Ecological hazard of landscape, and the mean ERI was only 0.0957; (3) The coordination degree of ESV and ERI is the highest in the NP scenario, indicating that the areas of severe imbalance and relative imbalance are only 2.87% and 7.52%; (4) Since regional coupling coordination is strongly governed by the land-use structure, achieving overall coordinated development requires an integrated approach that moves beyond a singular focus on ecological value or risk control.