Research on carbon emission baselines of office buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter regions

Building operational carbon emissions constitute a critical frontier for achieving the “dual carbon” goals. This study utilizes monthly electricity consumption data from 815 office buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter regions spanning 2021-2023. By integrating operational data with emission factor methodology, we calculated operational carbon intensity, analyzed temporal variations and structural characteristics, and established annual baseline emission benchmarks. Key findings reveal: 1) The carbon intensity of different types of office buildings shows a converging trend, with overall energy efficiency levels being comparable and no significant differences; 2) A significant negative correlation exists between carbon intensity and floor area, accompanied by scale effects and carbon rebound in mega-structures. The developed baseline framework provides quantitative foundations for regional carbon quota allocation, energy efficiency management, and prioritization of energy-saving retrofit initiatives.