Adaptive pathways for water scarcity: Lessons from smallholder agriculture

Conventional adaptation planning in sub-Saharan Africa often centres on irrigation infrastructure, external training, and standardised packages that overlook farmers' lived realities. This study employs a Choice Experiment (CE) within an adaptive capacity framework to identify how smallholder farmers in Malawi prioritise strategies in response to agricultural water stress. A Random Parameters Logit model (RPL) reveals a strong preference for socially embedded options, including inclusive participation platforms, farmer groups, finance for water saving practices, and climate-tolerant crop varieties, while infrastructure-heavy and authority-led interventions attract lower support. The highest valued attributes are combined into three farmer-centred pathways: Empowered Farmer-Led Adaptation, Resilient Livelihood Diversification, and Community-Based Resilience Support. By aligning design with labour-based Willingness to Participate (WTP), the study provides feasible, legitimate, and equity-sensitive options suited to smallholder contexts.