Agricultural Productivity and Food Security Under Climate Change: Empirical Insights from Developing Countries

The research investigates climate-agriculture relationships through Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling which analyzes 20 developing nations during 2000-2020. The National CO2 emissions function as a combined metric which tracks climate change impacts through temperature shifts and agricultural system limitations due to environmental conditions. The research design includes variance inflation diagnostics together with robustness tests to handle problems that occur because of multicollinearity between variables. The research data shows that emissions create long-term damage to agricultural production while showing strong connections between climate change metrics and food availability problems. The Pooled Mean Group estimation shows that countries maintain stable long-run relationships but their short-term adjustment patterns differ substantially. The emissions-food insecurity linkages in developing economies with high emissions become most evident because these nations face severe climate risks and experience unequal benefits from agricultural production. The duration of climate change effects differs between agricultural systems which produce different crops because of multiple factors which exist between climate and agricultural systems. The research results demonstrate that policy makers need to create unified strategies which will help them reach their climate change reduction targets while improving agricultural output and protecting food production systems.