A Pythagorean Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Approach for Iran’s Electricity Sustainability as a Case Study for Developing Economies

Transition to renewable electricity faces diverse challenges, the systemic interdependencies of which are still underexplored. This study applies a Pythagorean Fuzzy Cognitive Map (PFCM) to analyze and prioritize challenges of transitioning to the electricity sustainability across five dimensions of economic, technological, policy, social, and geopolitical. The analysis is based on experts’ opinions from Iran’s energy domain. Results indicate that geopolitical constraints such as sanctions and water scarcity, and social challenges like public acceptance and skills gaps are more influential than conventional economic and technological challenges. The analysis reveals that sanctions (C51) and water stress (C52) have cascading effects, disrupting financing (C11), technology imports (C21–C22), and governance coherence (C31–C33). Meanwhile, low public trust (C41) and fossil fuel subsidies (C13) emerge as secondary but pivotal bottlenecks. The study shows that economic or infrastructural improvement alone cannot drive transition. Instead, it argues that geopolitical solutions such as sanctions relief and social preparedness are prerequisites for starting progress in other domains. These findings suggest that policymakers should prioritize diplomatic engagement and social-centric energy campaigns alongside technical investments.