Modeling the 1998 Bahr el Ghazal famine in Southern Sudan
Abstract
This paper explores the use of system dynamics modeling to better understand the 1998 Bahr el Ghazal famine in southern Sudan. Based on expert interviews and a literature review, it presents a set of causal loop diagrams that clarify the complex dynamics involved in the crisis, demonstrating how three major political 'holds' permitted a self-reinforcing famine system to form. A simulation of this model generates similar outcomes in mortality and malnutrition to those that occurred in the actual crisis. Based on this analysis, the paper suggests several ways that modeling could have supported a more effective response at the time of the crisis and may be able to strengthen efforts to prevent famines in the future.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Global Maternal and Child Health
Agricultural risk and resilience
Health and Conflict Studies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Journal of Public Health Policy
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- S1
- Pages
- 44–55
- Publication date
- 1 August 2026
- Language
- EN