Beyond conformity: exploring the moderated role of peer effects in shaping business model innovation amid public opinion uncertainty

In the digital media era, identifying and managing public opinion risks has become essential for safeguarding business model innovation. Drawing on 303 survey responses and employing multiple regression and the Johnson–Neyman technique, this study developed a moderated mediation framework to examine how public opinion uncertainty shapes business model innovation through employees’ passion for inventing and passion for developing. The potential “chilling effect” and “peer effect” were also explored. Grounded in Conservation of Resources Theory, the study further explained employees’ coping strategies under uncertainty. The results revealed that public opinion uncertainty negatively affected business model originality, application, and lean through the two mediators, with no significant difference between the dual mediation paths. Unexpectedly, passion for inventing did not significantly mediate the link between public opinion uncertainty and business model application. The significant moderated mediation effects provide evidences to confirm “peer effect”, reflecting tendencies of conforming to external uncertainties. Together, these findings underscore the importance of fostering a supportive environment for business model innovation. Theoretical contributions and practical implications are also discussed.