Digital pulse of inclusion: spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of public disability attention in China

Understanding the dynamics of public disability attention is essential for creating inclusive urban environments and designing equitable policy interventions. This study introduces a novel public disability attention index (PDA), derived from large-scale, longitudinal social media data, serving as a timely proxy for public disability concern. Combining spatiotemporal hotspot analysis with interpretable spatial machine learning, we examine PDA evolution across 277 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2024. Results reveal a clear and sustained upward trend in PDA over the past decade. While eastern and northeastern regions exhibit consistently high PDA levels, central and western regions show faster growth from lower baselines. Notably, as China’s “Rust Belt,” northeastern region emerges as the most dynamic, with the highest share of persistent and emerging hotspots. In contrast, the economically advanced eastern region appears more stable yet fragmented, while the central and western regions display a mixed pattern of rising and stagnant attention. Contextual factors such as education, digital access, social security, and environmental quality are significantly associated with spatial variation in PDA, with nonlinear, threshold, and region-specific effects. Particularly, average years of education and internet penetration show the strongest positive alignment, whereas air pollution is consistently negatively associated. These findings offer a nuanced understanding of the evolving geography of disability awareness and provide practical insights for promoting more inclusive, equitable, and regionally adaptive strategies to advance disability inclusion in China.