Heterogeneous impacts of digital economy on tourism: a causal forest analysis from China

This study explores the digital economy’s heterogeneous effects on tourism in the context of a developing country. Using the Broadband China Program as a quasi-natural experiment, we compile a panel of 295 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2019 and adopt a staggered difference-in-differences strategy combined with a causal forest method to uncover treatment heterogeneity. The policy increased tourism arrivals by 24.0% and revenue by 25.7%, primarily through enhanced informatization, industry integration, and innovation capacity. Benefits are concentrated in cities with advanced transportation, abundant tourism resources, higher network stock, and greater technology input, suggesting that unequal initial conditions may amplify digital divides. Importance factor analysis further identifies government support, industrial structure, economic activity, and openness as critical drivers of policy effectiveness. Quantile estimates indicate larger effects in cities with higher tourism capacity, while spatial analysis reveals positive spillovers within 300 km. These findings demonstrate how digital economy policies can promote tourism-driven sustainability but also highlight the need for inclusive digital strategies to mitigate regional disparities in developing countries.