Efficiency versus sustainability: spatial mismatches between urban land-use and ecosystem services in China’s Yellow River Basin

Abstract Balancing urban land-use efficiency (ULUE) with ecosystem stability is critical for sustainable urban development. While many studies suggest that ULUE improvements enhance sustainability, few examine the spatial coordination between ULUE and the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESs)—a key determinant of long-term ecological viability. This study develops a ULUE evaluation framework incorporating ES considerations, applied to China’s Yellow River Basin (YRB) as a representative case. Using county-level data from 2000–2020, we assess ULUE dynamics alongside the supply and demand of five key ESs: food provision, water yield, soil retention, carbon sequestration, and flood mitigation. Spatial autocorrelation and regression analyses reveal mismatches between ULUE and ES supply-demand (ES-SD), alongside regionally heterogeneous impacts of ULUE on ES-SD. Our findings show that ULUE in the YRB remains low but is gradually improving, with higher-efficiency counties clustered around provincial capitals and urban agglomerations. ES-SD levels were highest in the less-developed upper reaches (southwest) and declined toward the urbanized lower reaches (east). Over time, all ES-SD indices except soil retention exhibited downward trends, with growing spatial disparities between ULUE and ES-SD. Crucially, ULUE’s effects on ES-SD varied significantly across subregions, necessitating tailored land-use policies. The study advances a generalizable framework for integrating ULUE and ES assessments, providing actionable insights for sustainable urban planning in the YRB and analogous regions globally.