Extreme heat and agricultural mechanization in China: implications for climate adaptation

Climate change increasingly threatens global agricultural sustainability, emphasizing the need to develop climate-adaptive agricultural systems. The expansion of agricultural mechanization, a key component of modern farming, has been extensively studied from socio-economic perspectives; however, whether it functions as an adaptive response to climate change remains poorly understood. This study examines the relationship between extreme heat events and mechanization, with particular attention to machinery heterogeneity. Using provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2006–2023, a fixed-effects model is employed to analyze the impact of extreme heat on mechanization, while assessing moderating factors such as land endowment and institutional support. The results indicate that extreme heat significantly increases the adoption of medium- and large-sized machinery, while reducing the use of small-sized machinery, leading to no net effect on overall mechanization. Land fragmentation constrains mechanization, whereas government support facilitates greater adoption of medium- and large-sized machinery. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals stronger mechanization responses in subsoiling and water-saving irrigation practices. Regions with higher agricultural insurance coverage and greater off-farm employment demonstrate enhanced climate adaptation through mechanization. These findings underscore the importance of differentiating machinery types and reinforcing institutional support to strengthen agricultural resilience. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers in developing countries to promote adaptive and sustainable agricultural systems through targeted mechanization strategies and improved institutional frameworks.