Hybrid Dynamic Modeling of Sufficiency and Efficiency Interventions for Decarbonization of Embodied Emissions in Urban Stocks

This study develops a generalizable dynamic modeling framework to analyze embodied emissions of urban stocks and evaluate the decarbonization potential of sufficiency and efficiency interventions. Using national warehouse building stocks as a case study, the framework leverages warehouse archetype distributions across the national stock, their corresponding building embodied carbon intensity values, and forecasted floorspace growth projections. Results reveal that given the rapid growth pace of warehouse stocks, efficiency measures offer relatively higher reductions under equal thresholds, while the threshold for sufficiency interventions would need to increase by a factor of approximately 1.2 to achieve comparable results. Merging sufficiency and efficiency approaches yields the synergistic outcomes with the 10% threshold scenario reducing cumulative emissions by 17.6% by 2050. Ultimately, the proposed framework introduces a dynamic dimension to forecasting emissions and evaluating growth-aware policies, enabling the tailoring of policy frameworks to specific archetypes and growth trends.