Affordable and Accessible System Reliability Tools for Developing Countries: A Capacity Building Exercise in the Philippines

Ninety percent of the countries facing the highest disaster risks are middle- and lower-income countries. It is essential to improve the infrastructure’s resilience in these countries, as the trend of disastrous events is set to increase given the current forecast on climate change and urbanization. Two issues to be addressed in this context are (1) affordability of risk mitigation measures, and (2) decision independence for local communities in the face of limited resources. This paper presents the collaborative development and dissemination of a state-of-the-art decision-support tool with an exclusive focus on affordability and accessibility. The prototype tool focuses on the interdependence between schools and transport systems as disruption to either or both systems can impact education delivery. A probabilistic model is formulated using the Bayesian network (BN) method to perform system reliability analysis. The tool utilizes detailed hazard and vulnerability models, advanced reliability methods, and community perspectives. To gain such community involvement, transition the tool to the end-users, and facilitate capacity building, a workshop was organized involving researchers, stakeholders, and students in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines. The platform is designed to facilitate two-way communication between a local community and the research team, to implement advanced decision-support tools independently through live exercises and feedback. The paper presents the methodological framework and delivery of this collaborative exercise.