Modeling the Compound Effects of Flood Hazards and Malicious Attacks on Crowd Management in Surface Transportation Facilities

Many surface transportation facilities are facing growing threats of compound events resulting from the occurrence of multiple hazards. For example, major flood events can cripple transportation systems, causing large crowds of stranded passengers. These crowds, in return, are vulnerable to disturbances ranging from false alarms of active shooters to malicious attacks. Therefore, there is a need for models that can simulate these scenarios and identify proactive approaches to mitigate these risks. In this paper, a modeling framework is designed to evaluate the vulnerability of surface transportation facilities to compound events. The framework couples flood simulation, infrastructure disruption models, a human vulnerability model, and a pedestrian simulation model. The study shows to what extent compound events such as flood and malicious attacks pose risk to crowded transportation facilities. The findings can be used to analyze the best strategies to mitigate these risks for safer management of the transportation facilities.