Evaluating Gas Blowout Craters in Permafrost Using the Material Point Method

Frozen soil fragmentation ejected from massive gas blowout craters in northwestern Siberia has been observed to travel up to several hundred meters from the crater center, posing significant risks to local communities and infrastructure. It has been hypothesized that permafrost fragmentation and ejecta result from high internal pressure; however, data on the magnitude of this pressure are lacking. In this study, we estimate the internal pressure that led to the formation of one such crater on the Yamal Peninsula by comparing simulated ejecta patterns with published field observations. Numerical modeling is performed using the material point method, with the mechanical behavior of permafrost represented by an elastoplastic model based on the Drucker–Prager criterion incorporating damage mechanics, and the gas phase is described by the ideal gas equation of state. The simulation results indicate that an internal pressure of approximately 2 MPa is required to reproduce the observed ejecta distribution for the analyzed crater.