Numerical Analysis of Climate-Induced Changes in Pavement Subgrade Performance

Seasonal climatic variations pose significant challenges to transportation infrastructure, particularly affecting the stability and performance of pavement subgrade under dynamic loading conditions. Despite this, current design practices often fail to adequately account for the effects of seasonal fluctuations. This study undertook numerical modeling to evaluate how climate-induced seasonal changes impact subgrade behavior, focusing on strength degradation, pore water pressure evolution, and displacement patterns. The model incorporates key climate variables, including air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation, along with vegetation and soil hydraulic properties, to simulate subgrade response. Dynamic loading simulations are conducted to examine the combined effects of traffic loads and changing climatic conditions, considering transient flow and seepage conditions. Historical weather data were used to construct realistic scenarios, with particular attention to seasonal drivers such as temperature swings, freeze-thaw cycles, and precipitation shifts that exacerbate subgrade vulnerability.