Revealing Community Natural Gas Pipeline Safety Risks: An Assessment Framework Based on the Pressure–State–Response Model

As a critical urban energy infrastructure, the frequent occurrence of natural gas pipeline deflagration accidents in recent years has resulted in significant loss of life and property. Current research on natural gas pipeline safety risks generally focuses on the inherent dangers of the pipelines themselves, i.e., “line” safety, while overlooking the broader impacts of such accidents on the communities they serve, i.e., “area” impacts. This study investigates 56 communities in the core urban area of Kunming City, China, and constructs a community pipeline risk measurement and evaluation framework based on the pressure–state–response model, considering linear and areal risks. The framework incorporates indicators related to the hazardousness of disaster-causing factors, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing entities, and the timeliness of emergency response. A geographic information system is used to quantify the results. The study finds that: (1) the hazardousness of disaster-causing factors, with a weight of 0.367 (0–1 scale), plays a dominant role in the comprehensive risk assessment, particularly related to pipeline pressure, wall thickness, and service age; (2) pipelines are subject to considerable safety risks due to aging, wear, and corrosion; (3) high risk communities account for up to 20% of the total, primarily due to aging buildings and low coverage of emergency response units; (4) the linear risk level is more spatially dispersed due to environmental influences, while the areal risk is more concentrated. This study further maps the risk of natural gas accidents in urban areas, providing decision support for municipalities to implement preventive measures and reduce the potential impact of safety incidents such as natural gas pipeline explosions.