Policy-induced market coupling in renewable energy: A system dynamics study of green certificates, carbon emissions, and power rights

With the power market reform deepening, the increasing integration of policy objectives and market mechanisms has increased the complexity of the power market. In order to clarify the dynamic relationship between increasingly complex policies and markets, a framework for carbon rights trading and green energy certification and electricity market has been implemented through market mechanisms. Based on this, scenario design and Dynamic Model simulation are carried out, and the sensitivity of key factors is analyzed. Results show that (1) the percentage allocated to renewable energy obligations has an obvious promotion effect on the construction of renewable energy units; the transactions involving power generation rights promote the construction of sustainable energy infrastructure in the coming years and inhibit their development in the long run. (2) Renewable energy quota ratio and power generation right trading target are closely related to green certificate price and carbon emission right price. (3) When the growth rate target of the renewable quota ratio is below 1.5% and the target of the power generation right trading ratio is below 3%, it will have a promoting effect on the accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies.