Forecasting the streamflow of the Tigris river at Kut Barrage using SAMS program

For many years, hydrologic time series in particular and time series for water resources in general have been systematically simulated for a wide range of issues pertaining to the design and administration of water resource systems. Now Iraqi water resources suffer from several problems, including the scarcity of water resources and the policies of neighboring countries and their impact on the decrease in the quantities of water imports and the annual water harvest. One would anticipate that the model will reproduce the historical statistics given the historical data. For this reason, figuring out the past data is a standard streamflow stage modeling research. For the modeling of hydrological time series, including streamflow, specialized software has proven appealing for a number of reasons. One is the unique characteristics of hydrological processes, where the mean, variance, covariance, and skewness all depend on periodic features. Producing synthetic hydrologic data is the primary goal of the Stochastic Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (SAMS) program. This research examined yearly data on the streamflow of the Kut Barrage on the Tigris River spanning 48 years, from 1935 to 1982 To calculate the parameters of the univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, historical data were examined and ACF and PACF shown. The data were converted using the logarithm transformation method, and the skewness and Filliben tests were run to assess the data’s normality. The optimal ARMA model for data forecasting was identified using the corrected Aikaike information criterion (AICC) and the Schwarz information criterion (SIC). The values of the statistical characteristics of the historical and predicted data showed a considerable convergence when the data were compared to the expected data. The values of the statistical characteristics of the historical and forecasted data showed a considerable convergence upon comparison with the predicted data. This leads us to the conclusion that, for the next 48 years following 1982, the Kut Barrage on the Tigris River may continue to create streamflow using the ARMA (1,1) model, which is deemed suitable.