The simulation of DTMC SIRS model with sanitation on typhoid disease

This study simulates the spread of typhoid disease using a Discrete Time Markov Chain Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (DTMC SIRS) model that consider sanitation facilities. Typhoid is a contagious bacterial health disease spread by consumption of tainted food or water, or by direct contact with those infected. The lack of sanitation facilitates increase the spread of typhoid. The DTMC SIRS-Sanitation model divides the population into three groups i.e. susceptible, infected, and recovered groups while considering transmission, recovery, immune waning rates, and a sanitation level parameter. The model is represented by transition probability. The transition probabilities are determined by the movement of individuals among groups. The simulations model is conducted using parameter values from previous research. The results show that when the sanitation level exceeds the transmission rate, the typhoid epidemic ends more quickly. This is because higher level sanitation reduces the probability of susceptible individuals becoming infected. This model provides an explanation of how improved sanitation can effectively control typhoid outbreaks by inhibiting disease transmission. The adequate sanitation facilities are important strategy to prevent the spread of typhoid disease.