Validating the EU’s blue growth climatic resilience: new insights from the aquaculture and land-use change

Context The growth of aquaculture within land use systems plays a crucial role in the European Union’s ambition to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, according to the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation. Unfortunately, current research in this area often falls short. It seldom provides a clear picture of the long-term impacts of land use changes from 1990 to 2023 within specific sectors. Additionally, there is a lack of comparative studies between the EU14 and EU13 nations, which is important given their varying developmental paths and institutional frameworks. Moreover, indirect factors such as feed production are frequently ignored, and issues with endogeneity persist, which weakens the effectiveness of policy recommendations. To address these shortcomings, a comprehensive analysis over the long haul is essential. Such research would illuminate the connections between aquaculture and land use changes, ultimately aiding in the development of more focused and sustainable policy measures. Aims To examine how land-use change (LUC) in the EU27 has been influenced by the expansion of the aquaculture sector over the period of 1990–2023. Methods Endogeneity in estimating the causal link between aquaculture and LUC was addressed using the following three distinct econometric estimators: ordinary least squares (OLS), robust least squares (RLS) and two-stage least squares (2SLS). Key results (1) Unsustainable growth in the aquaculture industry is a primary driver of more severe land destruction in EU13 nations than in EU14 nations. (2) In EU14 nations, fossil fuel consumption and economic expansion within the aquaculture sector exert a more pronounced influence on LUC than they do in EU13 nations. (3) The institutional quality of the aquaculture sector plays a larger role in shaping LUC management practices in EU13 nations relative to EU14 nations. Conclusions Land conversion for aquaculture is frequently associated with adverse outcomes, including natural resource degradation, social and community disruptions, and heightened ecological and economic risks. Implications EU27 policymakers should prioritise enhancing the environmental sustainability and performance of the aquaculture industry. Specifically, initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable marine economies should be emphasised for both EU13 and EU14 nations to mitigate adverse LUC effects and support long-term sectoral and environmental sustainability.