Integrating forest succession modeling and a physics-based fire behavior model to support long-term prescribed fire management

Background Fire modeling is a key prescribed fire planning tool, but there are limited operational tools for integrating models of forest change and fire behavior. Aims We sought to integrate a forest succession model, LANDIS-II, with a fire behavior model, QUIC-Fire, into a workflow for assessing fire behavior in projected future fuel conditions. Methods Using aboveground biomass, we matched LANDIS-II data to cohorts of trees in Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data by predicting tree age using Random Forest modeling. We then used tree attributes from FIA to create three-dimensional QUIC-Fire inputs representing fine fuel density. Key results We presented L2-QF, a novel crosswalk between cohort-based LANDIS-II outputs and individual tree characteristics to create three-dimensional fuel arrays for QUIC-Fire. We demonstrated the utility of L2-QF by modeling forest change through time in multiple climate and management scenarios, then used the projected future fuel conditions to model fire behavior and effects. Conclusions Our demonstration shows fire behavior in QUIC-Fire is responsive to forest succession effects of the LANDIS-II scenarios, allowing 3D simulations of fire under future conditions. Implications L2-QF can be used to explore how fire behavior may be influenced by broader-scale biophysical and ecological processes. Future advancements are planned to expand this coupling to a deployable tool.