Why are you burning? The interplay between land cover, climatic variability and fire activity in the dry forests of Argentina

Background The interplay between climate, vegetation and human activity hinders the analysis of fire regimes in socio-ecological systems. With a monsoonal and variable rainfall regime, Argentine Dry Chaco is one of the largest dry forests worldwide and an important agricultural frontier advancing at forest detriment. Overall, fire plays a key role in shaping the landscape and in land management. Aims We describe land cover (LC) transitions and temporal trends in fire frequency, analyze fire-mediated transitions probability, and assess LC and climate influence on fire occurrence in the Argentine Dry Chaco. Methods Employing data generated through remote sensors, we conducted spatially explicit temporal reconstructions of annual fire activity (FA), LC changes and climate conditions from 2000 to 2023. Key results Agriculture and pastures expanded while forests lost ~17% of their initial area; annual FA showed a significant declining trend, with grasslands, pastures and agriculture having the highest burn probability. When fire occurs, forests, shrublands and pastures increase their likelihood of transitioning to agriculture. Fire occurrences within managed lands are decoupled from climatic influences. Conclusions Decrease in FA is driven by a transformation in agricultural systems, moving from traditional to mechanized management. Implications Transdisciplinary approaches are crucial for analyzing the purposes of fire use.