Year-to-year variation in weather-epistaxis correlations: a pilot study for multi-year research design

Background Previous epistaxis studies report conflicting weather correlations, potentially reflecting year-to-year variation rather than geographic differences. Traditional combined analysis approaches may mask temporal correlation patterns, contributing to inconsistent research findings.Aims/Objectives To examine annual stability of weather-epistaxis correlations and establish methodology for multi-year studies accounting for temporal variation in environmental health relationships.Material and Methods Pilot study examining weather correlation stability using 2,201 epistaxis presentations from two UK hospitals (January 2023-December 2024). Weather parameters were analyzed separately for each year. Year-specific and combined analytical approaches were compared.Results Weather-epistaxis correlations demonstrated notable year-to-year differences, though none achieved statistical significance. Humidity showed complete directional reversal from positive correlation in 2023 (r= +0.1259) to negative in 2024 (r=−0.1058). Temperature correlations increased in magnitude from weak (r=−0.036) to stronger negative correlation (r=−0.379) and pressure correlations similarly increased (r=−0.080 to r=−0.399). Combined analysis masked this variation, showing weak non-significant correlations. Spring presentations increased 26% year-over-year suggesting potential allergic confounding.Conclusions Weather-epistaxis correlations show year-to-year differences that combined analyses may mask, despite lack of statistical significance. Future studies should consider extended observation periods spanning 5–10 years to distinguish relationships from temporal variation.Significance This study provides evidence that temporal variation may contribute to conflicting findings in epistaxis literature and establishes methodology for environmental health research.