Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide emissions in China’s logistics industry

This study uses the directional distance function parameter estimation method to measure the MAC of carbon dioxide of the logistics industry in China’s 30 provinces from 2006 to 2021 and analyses its evolution characteristics. A panel data model is further constructed to examine its influencing factors. The results show that: (1) The MAC is generally showing a continuous growth trend, rising from 8971.29 yuan/ton in 2006 to 9496.18 yuan/ton in 2021. At the regional level, the MAC is highest in the central region, followed by the eastern and northeast regions, and lowest but fastest growing in the western region. At the provincial level, the MAC is relatively higher in economically developed regions, while those in inland regions are relatively lower. With the exception of Inner Mongolia and Shandong, which exhibit relatively pronounced peak characteristics, most provinces generally show an upward trend, although the growth patterns vary. (2) There is an inverted ‘U’ shaped relationship between the MAC and carbon emission intensity, with a critical value of 6.0634 tons/10,000 yuan for the carbon emission intensity. There is a negative correlation between the MAC and technological progress. Energy structure has a negative impact on the MAC, although this effect is not significant.