Enhancing energy resilience: a CGE-Based analysis of policy mixes to disruptions in the European Union

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transmission agreement marks energy uncertainty for EU, highlighting the urgent need to adjust its energy policies to enhance resilience. However, although many studies have examined the Ukraine crisis and EU energy policies, few have quantitatively assessed the energy resilience of combined EU response policies under various disruption scenarios. This study links the dimensions of ‘energy resilience’ to energy-economic systems, shifting from traditional approaches to a macroeconomic framework. We quantitatively assess the economic and environmental impacts of various policy combinations by Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and construct a Composite Energy Resilience Index using CGE outcomes to determine the best-performed policy combination. The results indicate that (1) the integrated strategies perform the greatest improvement in energy resilience, primarily driven by the synergy between external and internal strategies; (2) there exists an optimal integrated strategy that achieves the highest Composite Energy Resilience Index under the given scenario settings; (3) energy conservation measures that involve reductions in natural gas demand sharply reduce the energy resilience. This conclusion remains robust after conducting sensitivity analysis. The study underscores the importance of energy policy design in enhancing resilience, providing valuable insights for future policy development.