Singleness and childlessness in European countries pose challenges for carbon mitigation

Developed countries are experiencing trends towards childlessness and singleness, along with the challenges of climate change, yet little analysis has been conducted to explore the relationship between these issues. The present study evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of five household groups and clarifies the climate implications of household transitions towards singleness and childlessness. We found that trends in singleness and childlessness in developed countries pose challenges for carbon mitigation. Although there is a sharp decrease in the GHG footprint of couple households with dependent children, the emerging single and childless households account for an increasing share of the aggregate GHG footprint due to the household and structural effect. Single and childless households tend to have higher housing energy expenditures compared to other household types, making them more vulnerable to carbon pricing. This suggests that climate policy should be aligned with demographic policies to protect single and childless households, fostering more inclusive and sustainable development.