Structural imbalance when deploying machines: do robots intensify Baumol’s disease?

This article examines the structural imbalance caused by the adoption of industrial robots, commonly referred to as Baumol’s disease. Combining data on A-share listed firms, industrial robot usage, and input – output tables, we construct industry pair level measures of robot use and productivity ratios. The results reveal that robots widen the existing productivity gap between the manufacturing and service sectors, thereby intensifying Baumol’s disease. This negative impact is pronounced in services with high institutional dependence, high policy uncertainty, and low digital penetration. Moderation analysis suggests that this adverse impact can be significantly mitigated by good performance in technology spillover from manufacturing, the absorptive capacity of services, and the spillover channel between industries. Our study enriches discussion of how robots intensify cross-industry development imbalances and thereby contributes to the literature on the technological causes of Baumol’s disease. We also emphasize the importance of cross-industry technology diffusion and synergistic effects in mitigating this structural imbalance. Consequently, the findings provide new insights for the coordinated development of industrial structures in the era of intelligent transformation.