Temperature effects on agricultural households’ consumption: evidence from China

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (2014–2022) and meteorological stations, this paper constructs temperature interval variables to examine the nonlinear effects of temperature variation on agricultural households in China. The results show that, using the [20°C, 25°C) temperature range as the reference interval, both upward and downward deviations from this range are associated with decreases in household consumption expenditure. Due to adaptive behaviour, the relationship between temperature and household consumption exhibits a roughly ‘double-N-shaped’ pattern – a nonlinear pattern with dual downward trends moderated by adaptive recoveries at moderate extremes – a structure found only among agricultural households, highlighting their disproportionate economic burden under climate change. Each additional day above 40°C and below −5°C reduces agricultural consumption by 0.41% and 0.59%, respectively. Further analysis reveals that climate change decreases non-essential expenditures while increasing outlays on transportation and healthcare. Mechanism analysis indicates that temperature fluctuations limit household consumption by decreasing wealth, raising precautionary savings, and strengthening preferences for self-protection. Furthermore, based on the RCP8.5 climate scenarios for Chinese cities, the simulations project that the rise in high-temperature days will continue to suppress agricultural household consumption.