The power of recovery: evidence of education gains in the aftermath of a natural disaster

This article explores the short-term impact of an earthquake which occurred in Ecuador in April 2016 on educational outcomes. We implement a two-way fixed effects strategy with geo-referenced and administrative data for the two years immediately before (2015–2016) and the two years after the earthquake (2017–2018) to compare educational outcomes for affected and unaffected children. Unexpectedly, the analysis shows that students in earthquake-affected schools scored 0.25–0.30 points (out of 10) higher in the standardized, national secondary school-leaving exam ‘Ser Bachiller’ with the results being robust to placebo tests. This translates into a 12-percentage point increase in the probability of passing. We demonstrate that the earthquake became an opportunity. Employing information on public spending, access to learning materials, and self-reported class interaction shows that the reconstruction efforts have likely contributed to the observed increases in human capital. Half of the post-earthquake gain in test scores may be attributed to the earthquake induced increases in access to educational resources. The earthquake also triggered greater collaboration and enhanced community resilience – channels difficult to quantify. Yet, at least the data shows no statistically discernible (negative) effect on the psychological well-being of students after the earthquake.