The Macroeconomic Impact of Sanctions: A Systematic Literature Review

We conduct a systematic review of 149 studies on sanctions’ macroeconomic effects from the Web of Science Core Collection, selected using a predefined search string, screening criteria (macroeconomic outcomes and quantified sanctions exposure), and duplicate checks. We assess how empirical designs – gravity/PPML for trade frictions, policy shock/event studies, and VAR/SVAR for macrofinancial dynamics – shape findings. The most consistent pattern is a short to medium-term contraction in trade and external finance; GDP-level and long-term effects are more heterogeneous and sensitive to horizon, sanction measurement, and simultaneous shocks. We provide a design-aware synthesis that clarifies comparability and key evidence gaps.