Under the Gun: Military and Paramilitary Actors in Sudan’s Agrifood System

Armed actors are entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often with implications for agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. This paper focuses on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, the paper traces how these actors gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that their investments in certain value chains depend on whether the formal private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required for more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent-extraction, biased competition through licencing and quota allocations, acquiescence to private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when profit potential is high and the private sector is absent. We demonstrate these strategies with respect to livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Since economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023-armed conflict, identifying these strategies expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.