Climate Justice in the Brazilian Amazon: Who Contributes to the Mitigation Effort and What Are the Short-Term Effects?

Amid the climate emergency and unequal mitigation burdens, this article applies a climate justice lens to examine how mitigation efforts have been socially and spatially distributed across Brazil’s Legal Amazon from 1990 to 2023. We assess municipal contributions to Brazil’s NDC targets by comparing all municipalities with those that meet or fail to meet these goals. Using net GHG emissions data and a Panel VAR model, we analyse dynamic interactions among emissions, deforestation, vegetation cover, and population. The results show marked intra-regional inequalities, especially in Amazonas, where low-income municipalities with weaker institutions often achieve negative emissions and exceed per capita reduction targets. Compliant municipalities display environmental stability, while non-compliant areas face reinforcing cycles of forest loss and rising emissions. The findings highlight the need for asymmetric, territory-specific climate policies.