Socioeconomic Determinants and Spatial Trends of Disaster Risk in Nicaragua

Central America and Nicaragua are frequently affected by disasters due to their physical and environmental characteristics, exposure, and vulnerability. This study begins by offering a physical-geographic characterization of Nicaragua, followed by a national-scale analysis using the EM-DAT database to examine the most intense disasters from 1930 to 2023. We then focus on a municipal-level analysis using the available DesInventar database between 1992 and 2013 to identify municipalities with the highest disaster incidence. We filled the last decade (2014–2023) with available information extracted from secondary sources such as large events reports and scientific papers. Key findings highlight the most impactful years, months, and types of disasters, such as floods, tropical cyclones, droughts, wildfires, and epidemics. Subsequently, statistical analyses are conducted, including a correlation matrix, multiple linear regression, Poisson regression, and random forest modeling. These methods help determine which socioeconomic variables best explain the occurrence of disasters by municipality throughout history. Our results are crucial for understanding future disaster risk, explaining the spatiotemporal patterns, and identifying disaster hot spots. This study provides valuable insights into disaster risk management and serves as a methodological example for countries with similar conditions—tropical regions and developing nations that often lack comprehensive baseline data.