How Long Will I Live? Understanding Subjective Life Expectancy in Comparison to Actuarial Estimates

Most individuals have a general awareness of how long they might live—their subjective life expectancy (SLE). However, these perceptions often differ from actuarial estimates of life expectancy. We examine factors associated with SLE and deviations from actuarial estimates, including demographic characteristics that drive actuarial life tables, socioeconomic status, and psychosocial measures such as perceptions of health and health locus of control. We further consider how COVID-19 experiences are associated with SLE. Analyzing a national probability sample of 1771 adults aged 18 and over living in the United States, we found that Hispanic respondents underestimate their life expectancy, whereas Black respondents, males, and persons of higher socioeconomic status tend to overestimate life expectancy. Additionally, people with higher health locus of control, self-esteem, and self-rated health also tend to overestimate their life expectancy. Within the context of the pandemic, respondents who knew someone with COVID-19 had lower subjective life expectancy.