Beijing’s Global Opposition Campaign

The conventional literature on power transitions warns that a rising challenger may seek to dethrone the established power by launching a devastating great-power war. The contemporary international environment, however, differs from that of the past, creating incentives to avoid a major conflagration and instead employ a strategy of amassing international support and improving institutional standing. Given these strategic aims, as a rising power, China is more likely to adopt tactics analogous to a domestic opposition party: promoting an alternative political programme with slogans and manifestos; seeking a greater institutional presence by building support with coalitions and patronage relationships; and using political communications to portray itself positively in contrast to the incumbent power. Based on an examination of three domains of China’s behaviour, this analogy sheds light on the tactics it is using to pursue a greater international leadership role.