Pondering Gaza

Phase one of the ceasefire in Gaza has sharply reduced the scale of violence. But the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack injected Israeli society with existential purpose. Israeli military power subdued Hizbullah and Iran, which judged that a major war with Israel would diminish them more than exposing the weakness of the ‘axis of resistance’. For Israel, growing isolation affirmed right-wing claims that Hamas was just the tip of an eternal anti-Semitic spear. European and Middle Eastern powers were sufficiently ambivalent about Israel’s brutal response to 7 October that isolation never evolved into punishment. Although many equated Israel’s conduct with genocide, this is not an adjudicated fact, and redress has consisted only of empty gestures towards Palestinian self-determination. Perhaps the most strategically conspicuous aspect of the war was the United States’ lack of leverage over Israel. This casts doubt on whether the far more ambitious phase two will be realised.