Global state of man-made filaments

This study examines the global trade dynamics of man-made filaments under the Harmonized System (HS) code 54 from 1996 to 2023, focusing on the evolution of market structure, regional shifts, and future trends. Through analysis of trade data, dramatic changes in market concentration and competitive dynamics are revealed. Results demonstrate significant market restructuring, with China’s share increasing substantially across all categories, while traditional manufacturers in Europe and North America experienced notable declines. The study identifies three distinct phases of market evolution: traditional market dominance (1996-2000), transition period (2000-2008), and consolidation phase (2009-2023). The research employs ARIMA modeling for trend analysis and forecasting, while accounting for the disruptions caused by COVID-19. Forecasting models suggest continued growth in trade values across all categories, though with varying levels of prediction accuracy across different HS codes. These findings have important implications for global supply chain resilience, environmental sustainability, and industry development strategies.