Socioeconomic disparities in shadow education participation and college expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Boudon’s framework posits that family socioeconomic status (SES) contributes to educational attainment through achievement gaps (‘primary effects’) and educational decisions (‘secondary effects’), independent of academic performance. Prior studies have applied this framework to early-stage choices, including shadow education participation—extracurricular lessons to support academic performance—and college expectations, both known to shape later attainment. Unlike ‘primary effects,’ ‘secondary effects’ remain underexplored in pandemic contexts. Thus, this study uses a two-wave nationwide panel of elementary and junior high school students and their parents in Japan, where compulsory education is nationally standardized. Multilevel models reveal that increased financial hardship during the pandemic was associated with reduced shadow education participation among junior high students and lower college expectations among students and parents. As lower-SES families faced mounting economic challenges, heightened ‘secondary effects’ were observed, even within Japan’s standardized system—suggesting that such disparities could be more pronounced in less standardized educational contexts.