Modelling solar irradiance variability with the Beta PDF for improved power generation estimation

The estimation of solar power generation using the Beta probability distribution function (pdf) is presented in this paper. Initially, the hourly data of solar irradiation for the three consecutive years at Cambay, Gujarat state of India, has been extracted to calculate static elements, such as mean, standard deviation and variance. To attain shape and scale parameters of Beta pdf, the mean and variance of hourly data have been employed, and the Beta pdf curve of each hour per quarter has been obtained. Further, four finite states of solar irradiation have been introduced, which have been determined from the standard deviation of hourly data. Thus, with the application of these shape and scale parameters of the Beta pdf and four finite states, solar power potential for every hour per day per quarter has been estimated using a developed mathematical model in MATLAB software. The results indicate that hourly estimated power per day per quarter not only increases accuracy but also reduces estimation error. At the end, a comparative analysis with recently developed methods has been accomplished, which reveals the robustness of the proposed method for solar power generation estimation.