What causes a state to collapse? An empirical analysis of a failed state

This research explores the determinants of state collapse through an empirical case study conducted after the fall of the internationally supported government in Afghanistan. It examines state collapse following 20 years of the international community’s involvement, highlighting the centralisation of power, ethnic divisions, political exclusion, and endemic corruption as key factors enabling the Taliban’s swift return to power in August 2021. Drawing on scholarly debates surrounding state failure, this paper emphasises the limitations of externally imposed administration models in deeply divided societies and advocates for nuanced contextual analysis of state failures. It concludes that sustainable statehood in Afghanistan requires addressing historical ethnic inequalities and fostering inclusive governance structures designed to accommodate the country’s diverse societal fabric.